Singapore’s HDB resale market stumbled again in Q2 2026, with prices slipping a further 0.3% and transaction volume sinking 10.2% year-on-year to just 6,268 units. Two consecutive quarters of decline. That’s not a blip — that’s a trend worth paying attention to.
Two consecutive quarters of decline. That’s not a blip — that’s a trend worth paying attention to.
Think of it like a hawker centre slowly losing its lunchtime crowd. The food’s still there, but people are eating elsewhere or packing their own lunch. In this case, “elsewhere” means BTO flats. With 2,520 fresh units launched in June alone and another 7,960 expected in October, buyers have real options now. The June BTO exercise attracted strong interest, with the median first-timer family application rate reaching 1.4 for three-room and larger flats, up sharply from 0.9 in February.
The town-level numbers tell a wild story. Serangoon crashed 7.9%, Marine Parade fell 7.6%, Geylang dropped 6.9%. But then — out of nowhere — the Central Area jumped 19.7%. One town going up nearly 20% while sixteen others bleed. That’s not a balanced market. That’s a market breaking apart at the seams.
And the million-dollar flat obsession? Still going strong, weirdly. June 2026 saw a record 176 million-dollar transactions in a single month. Their share of total resale deals hit 7.8% — past the 7% mark for the first time. Non-mature estates are now punching above their weight too, accounting for 10.6% of those seven-figure deals. The H1 total of 902 million-dollar deals marks a sharp rise from 763 deals recorded in the same period last year. This aligns with a broader premium trend, as million-dollar HDB transactions in 2025 already surged 50% year-on-year to reach 1,500 deals for the full year.
But here’s the real gut punch: jobs. Retrenchments are climbing. Hiring’s slowing. People aren’t willing to throw cash-over-valuation at a flat anymore when they’re not sure their job is safe next year. It’s exactly like how nobody rushes to upgrade their car when COE prices are crazy AND the economy feels shaky. You wait.
Five-room flats fell 0.9% to S$738,000. Three-roomers dipped 0.5% to S$442,888. Even million-dollar flat averages softened slightly to S$1.147 million.
Flats are sitting on the market for two to three months now before selling. That’s not fast. That’s a market catching its breath.
H2 2026 isn’t looking like a recovery. More BTO supply, softer jobs, cautious buyers. The resale market’s walking uphill in the rain right now.
