Even as transactions dipped in October, HDB resale prices largely held their ground, underscoring a market that is cooling, not cracking. Activity softened, with an average monthly dip of 0.6% in October 2025 and fewer million-dollar deals, but the price floor stayed firm.
The HDB Resale Price Index has now risen for 23 consecutive quarters, reaching 203.7, even as quarterly gains cooled to 0.4% in Q3 2025, the slowest in five years. For 2025 overall, prices are projected to rise by a moderate 3–4%, a clear step down from the brisk 9.7% increase in 2024.
Transaction patterns tell a similar “steady, not sliding” story. Q3 2025 recorded 7,157 resale transactions, up 2.5% from the previous quarter but down 17.5% year on year, reflecting buyer caution rather than retreat.
Earlier in the year, Q1 resale volume also slipped 7.7% year on year. October’s quieter high-end segment followed a record Q3, when 472 flats crossed the million-dollar mark, highlighting how the premium tier can swing month to month. Year-to-date 2025, 1,243 million-dollar flats have sold, surpassing 2024’s total of 1,035 units.
Affordability has inched forward as price growth aligns more closely with wage growth. Half of all Q3 2025 transactions fell between $500,000 and $750,000, a band that anchors the mass market.
The price gap for 5-room flats remains stark, with mature towns averaging $931,550 versus $715,799 in non-mature estates, about a 30% difference—location still matters, no surprise there.
Supply is the tighter screw. Only about 8,000 flats reached MOP in 2025, the lowest in more than a decade, limiting fresh listings and keeping premiums for younger flats with longer leases.
New BTO launches are starting to relieve pressure, slowly widening options and tempering bidding temperatures. Over 50,000 flats are slated for launch from 2025–2027, a pipeline intended to increase choice and stabilise prices.
Policy shifts are nudging balance rather than shock. The Plus, Prime, and Standard BTO framework, alongside longer MOPs and stricter resale rules for Prime units, makes some buyers favor resale flexibility.
Meanwhile, increased land supply, tied to broader housing plans, supports stability. This trend aligns with the private housing sector where suburban homes have become increasingly attractive to price-sensitive buyers. Demand from first-timers, upgraders, and downsizers remains healthy, yet buyers are more price-discerning—firm, fair, and a touch fussy.
