The HDB resale market in 2025 is experiencing notable shifts, characterized by slower price growth and a decline in transaction volumes. In the first quarter of 2025, resale prices saw a modest increase of 1.5% quarter-on-quarter. This cumulative growth marks the twentieth consecutive quarter of rising prices. However, the annual growth rate is expected to decline considerably to a range of 3% to 7%, compared to an impressive 9.7% in 2024. Much of this slow-down stems from a more plentiful supply of Build-To-Order (BTO) and Sale of Balance Flats (SBF), which adds choices for homebuyers.
The HDB resale market in 2025 faces slower price growth and declining transaction volumes, impacted by increased housing supply and affordability challenges.
Interestingly, only around 8,000 flats reached their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) this year, leading to a lower resale supply despite the increased offerings in new housing. The real sting, though, comes from the rising interest rates which, coupled with affordability constraints, are likely to keep price increases in check. Analysts predict a slowdown in price increases for 2025 also highlights the cautious outlook prevailing in the market. Additionally, the HDB Resale Price Index (RPI) reached 200.9 in this quarter, showing a continuous upward trend.
Adding to the mix, transaction volumes plummeted by 7.7% year-on-year in Q1, with only 6,392 units changing hands—the lowest since mid-2020. This drop in transactions ties back to fewer MOP completions and the allure of new BTO launches pulling buyers away from the resale market.
Looking ahead to later in 2025, it’s anticipated that resale transactions may rebound as hopeful BTO applicants turn to the secondary market. While this slower price growth presents a silver lining for buyers keen for affordability in the resale market, potential sellers and investors may encounter hidden risks. Government cooling measures continue to play a crucial role in maintaining market stability and preventing overheating despite increasing housing stock.
With increasing competition stemming from new launches and declining transaction volumes, sellers may need to rethink their pricing strategies. Nonetheless, as construction costs rise and income growth struggles to keep pace, buyers might remain hopeful for better deals in this evolving landscape.
Balancing risks with opportunities, it seems 2025 is shaping up to be an intriguing year for the HDB resale market.
