Although the housing market seemed to pause for a much-needed breather recently, private home prices are gearing up to hit record highs in 2026 as persistent supply shortages continue to squeeze the national landscape. While forecasts from varying analysts suggest different rates of ascent, the general consensus points upward, creating a slightly tighter squeeze for hopeful buyers who have been anxiously waiting out on the sidelines.
The National Association of Realtors explicitly predicts a median home-price gain of 4% nationally, a figure that suggests the market still has plenty of steam left in the tank. Other projections are a bit more conservative, estimating that U.S. home values will grow by roughly 1.2% after a relatively flat, uneventful performance in 2025. Beyond mere value appreciation, overall market activity is set to surge, with forecasts anticipating a 14% rise in home sales throughout 2026.
Even with current economic inflation naturally outpacing these nominal gains, prices are expected to climb modestly by about 2.2%, building steadily and undeniably upon the previous year’s noted 2% increase. This trend mirrors the luxury segment’s resilience, where sales of premium properties above a certain threshold have significantly outpaced general housing growth in recent months.
It is not all bad news or uniform growth, fortunately, because real estate is famously local. While the national median U.S. home-sale price is set to rise 1% year over year, tangible relief is actually appearing in specific regions where inventory is managing to expand. Projected price declines are anticipated in 22 of the 100 largest U.S. cities, offering a discount bin of sorts for savvy hunters.
Seven of the eight largest Florida cities are seeing significant drops, with the Cape Coral-Fort Lauderdale metro plummeting by 10.2%, the largest decline projected. Similarly, the North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton region expects a hard slide of 8.9%, largely because available residential stock in Southeast and West metros is finally growing.
However, the broader picture remains challenging as persistent supply shortages in key high-demand areas continue to act as a strong floor for pricing, effectively supporting those 4% gains on a national level.
Total existing home inventory has increased by 8.9%, and new single-family home construction has grown by 3.1%, yet the overall demand keeps the market pressure high. Market participation should also benefit from the expectation that mortgage rates will decrease to an average of 6.3%. Consequently, while inflation-adjusted home prices might decline slightly for a second year, the nominal cost on the sales sticker remains stubbornly high, proving that waiting for a dramatic crash might be a long, lonely game.
