How did a once-heated HDB resale market cool so quickly? By mid-2025, price momentum had clearly softened, with Q1 resale prices rising 1.6%, down from 2.6% in Q4 2024, and June posting just a 0.1% monthly uptick.
Mid-2025, HDB resale momentum softened: Q1 up 1.6%, June a mere 0.1%
Year-on-year, prices still climbed 7.3%, but compared with 2024’s 8.6%–9.7% annual spurts, the trajectory now looks flatter and more measured.
Transactions echoed the shift, dipping 0.4% month-on-month in June while staying 4.2% higher than a year earlier, signalling steadier interest but less urgency. In fact, Q1 2025 resale volumes fell 7.7% year-on-year, underscoring the market’s moderation.
Lower borrowing costs sit at the heart of the change. Anticipated SORA declines through 2025 have eased mortgage affordability, narrowing the gap between HDB and bank loans, and subtly changing buyer calculations.
With competitive packages on offer, some households are testing the private condo waters, as new launches refresh choices—a gentle pull that siphons part of resale demand. Reflecting this shift, private home transactions surged 44.4% in Q3 to 7,404 units, the highest quarterly volume since Q2 2013.
Reduced repayment burdens also remove the rush to secure a flat now, which naturally tempers price escalation.
Calm buyers tend to negotiate, and calmer negotiations tend to cool prices.
New supply is doing its part. A wave of BTO completions, coupled with the Standard, Plus, and Prime framework, gives buyers subsidised options and clearer trade-offs, taking immediate pressure off the resale channel.
The robust 2025 pipeline, supported by policy tweaks, points to longer-term stability, if it occasionally tests sellers’ patience.
Yet supply is not uniformly loose. Only 8,000 flats are reaching MOP this year, the lowest in over a decade, limiting the flow of younger units with long leases.
That scarcity keeps premiums intact for “fresh lease” listings and helps steady overall prices despite slower growth.
Meanwhile, the buyer mix is evolving: first-timers, upgraders, and some rightsizing households from the private market are more targeted, and less hurried.
The new federal anti-laundering regulations aimed at real estate transactions could further contribute to market transparency and stability in the long run.
Patterns on the ground remain nuanced. Non-mature estate prices inched up 0.1% in June, mature estates were flat, and 5-room flats posted the strongest monthly gain at 0.8%.
Executive flats fell 2.7% for the month but still rose 6.1% year-on-year, while 3-room flats are up 8.6% annually—evidence of a cooling market, not a cold one.
